The fasting journal · matched to fast day 40
Day 40. At What Point Do I Stop
Day 40. Late afternoon under the gazebo, flag gnome tucked into one arm. John gets the numbers out of the way in about twenty seconds and then spends the rest of the video on a question he cannot answer yet.
184.3 pounds. Down 0.6 from yesterday and 44.3 pounds below the 228.6 he weighed on August 1. BMI is 27.9, body fat 30.1 percent, muscle 37.8 percent and the day burned 1948 calories.
How do I feel? I feel good. No issues.
The question
What I want to talk about today is stopping.
He says it and then immediately puts a fence around it. Not that I am going to stop today. That is not what I am saying. The question is at what point do I stop.
Forty days in, that is a fair thing to be chewing on. He has never once said what the finish actually looks like on a scale.
The math nobody does first
Here is where the update earns its keep. He does not pick a number off a chart. He works backwards from what happens after.
Whatever weight I stop at, say I stop at 160 pounds, I am going to gain 10 pounds of water within the first two or three weeks.
So the arithmetic gets shifted. Stop at 160 and settle near 170. Stop at 150 and settle near 160. So forth and so on. That is just the way it is going to work.
He is not guessing at this from nowhere. He watched it happen in miniature on this fast. The avocado and the broth on day 30 put 2.4 pounds on him in two days, far more than the food weighed. Most of it drained back out. Carbohydrate and sodium bring water with them. A refeed after 40 or 60 days of water only is that same effect at full size.
Which means the number he stops on is not the number he keeps. Anyone doing a long fast and picking a goal weight off the scale is picking the wrong number.
Where the standards land
So the question is where should I stop. If you look at US standards my weight should be somewhere around 140 to 150.
The healthy body mass index band runs 18.5 to 24.9. At 5 foot 8 that is roughly 122 to 164 pounds, so his 140 to 150 sits comfortably inside it rather than at some extreme. He crossed out of the obese band back on day 23 and he is at 27.9 today, still overweight on paper.
He also mentioned that UK standards run a little lower. He did not cite anything and neither will we.
The interesting part is what has moved. On day 20, the morning he first went under 200, he named 160 pounds as the goal and said hitting it would make him a happy camper. Twenty days later the number he says out loud is 140 to 150. He has lost 15.4 pounds in between and the target came down with him.
He is asking you
I am interested to see what you guys think. Let me know where a guy who is 5’8 and 56 years old should be. And what that should look like.
That last clause is the one worth reading twice. Not just the number. What that should look like. He has spent the last week talking about shirts, waist sizes and the shape in the mirror. The scale is one answer to the question and it is clearly not the answer he trusts most.
Day 40 of 90
August is crossed out end to end and September is filling in. Fifty days to go.
He has a range, a rebound to plan around and no decision. That being said, I am going to let you guys go. You have a good day and I will see you next time. Cheers.
Quick answers
How much should a 5 foot 8 man weigh?
A healthy body mass index runs from 18.5 to 24.9. At 5 foot 8 that works out to roughly 122 to 164 pounds, which is a wide window rather than a single number. John's 140 to 150 sits near the middle of it. His 184.3 pounds on day 40 puts him at a BMI of 27.9, still in the overweight band and no longer in the obese one. The range is also only a starting point. MedlinePlus is direct that BMI alone cannot predict health risk and that providers also look at waist circumference and the waist to hip ratio before deciding what a given person should weigh.
How much weight comes back after a long water fast?
John's working number is about 10 pounds in the first two or three weeks. He is talking about water rather than fat. He has watched it happen on this fast already. The broth and avocado on day 30 pushed him up 2.4 pounds in two days, far more than the food itself could weigh. Most of it drained back out over the following days. Carbohydrate and sodium pull water in with them. That is why he does his stopping arithmetic on the number after the rebound instead of the number on the scale the morning he stops. Nobody on this site has measured his refeed yet, so treat 10 pounds as his estimate and not as a finding.
Has John changed his goal weight?
He has not committed to a new one. The number he says out loud has moved. On day 20 he named 160 pounds as the ultimate goal and called it the point where he would be a happy camper. On day 40 he pointed at 140 to 150 as where the standards put a man his height and then asked the audience rather than answering himself. Both numbers are below where he is now at 184.3. The honest state of it is that he has a range he is thinking about and no decision. He was clear that day 40 is not the day he stops.
Does BMI decide when to stop a water fast?
Not on its own and not on this fast. BMI is a rough screen built from height and weight, so it cannot tell muscle from fat and it cannot see what is happening in bloodwork. MedlinePlus says plainly that BMI alone cannot predict health risk. John has a doctor reviewing monthly bloodwork and he has said since the rash scare on day 19 that the fast ends if his doctor says it ends. The number on the scale is one input into that conversation. It is not the stop authority.